Gold prices forecast

Data on stocks of silver, COMEX daily published besides the usual information on the volume of trade can make some interesting comparisons.

Thus, silver inventories category REGISTERED (red) have a high degree of correlation with the price of the metal – at least on the chart visible stocks in April and May 2011goda that corresponds to the maximum price for the first time since 1980, come close to the level of $ 50 per ounce (Figure reversible, ie is, if the price curve goes up with the price increases, respectively, down).

While it is difficult to say which of the parameters determining whether there is a relationship or stocks and price are in turn derived from global trends – commodity or monetary, but a cautious outlook can be done.

So, from August 2008 to the present category reserves REGISTERED decreased from 87,213,090 to 26,729,370 ounces (34,505,725 ounces on February 15, 2012), ie 52 million ounces for the three and a half years, decreasing by 15-20 million ounces. Extrapolating this data (not taking into account possible emissions that inevitably will increase the prices of all commodities) conclude, stocks close to zero for a year and adjusted in accordance with the obtained dependence price of silver get $ 60-70 per ounce in the next half years.

It is also interesting correlation silver reserves category REGISTERED ELIGIBLE and from August 2008 to the present time – they fell and rose to 39% and 188%, respectively.

Click on image to enlarge.

The price of silver over the same period rose by 212%, which can also talk about the possible dependence of these parameters is particularly evident in the chart, it can be concluded that there is no silver overbought and the adequacy of the price of $ 29-35 per ounce now .

Exchange COMEX daily reports on the number of metals (including silver), located in warehouses licensed by the exchange depositories http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/silver-depositories.html, with metal stocks are divided into two Category: REGISTERED and ELIGIBLE.

Registered (REGISTERED) silver means that the silver is available for delivery on the contract, ie in fact, it is a physical, not a “paper” metal.

Inadequate or Acceptable silver (ELIGIBLE) – that means metal in warehouses depositary COMEX, meets the requirements of Exchange (ingot weigh 1,000 ounces of + / – 10%, have an approved exchange mark and be produced on the associated bond list affinazhere, not be available for delivery on commercial contracts.

Anyone who buys silver bullion and is not going to sell it, can instead of storing it at home, at the bank or dealer to deliver it to the warehouse depository COMEX – and the metal will be treated as ELIGIBLE – while it can not be put up against the contracts traded on This Chicago area.

When transferring from the same category in ELIGIBLE REGISTERED (the actual translation from one category to another is not difficult: the owner of the metal must receive from the depositary receipt (Depository Receipt (Warrant) to transfer him to one of the metal storage categories) the holder is entitled silver supply its metal contracts concluded on COMEX.

With some caution we can assume that it actually means REGISTERED category of traded physical silver, which gradually decreases due to the desire of investors / consumers to buy a real, not “paper” metal.

Actual Test drives http://motornewsrefresh.com/

Current prices of gold and prices predictions http://goldnewsrefresh.com

Investors can expect this year to the fact that gold prices could still reach a new record, while silver has managed to get around gold at the yield, which is growing faster than that of gold. With the opinion of investors about the prospects of the precious metals can be found on the forum for investors.

Currently, with the beginning of the year in the price of silver has increased by 22.4%, while gold was able to show the yield currently at 16.6%. Thus, over the last two weeks, when the price rally of both precious metals, silver was able to grow in value by almost half compared with the gold.

However, despite the rapid growth of silver over the past few months this year, compared profitability of both metals over the past two years, here silver is inferior to gold. This is primarily due to the significant decline in the price of silver over the past 2011. The largest drop in the last year was in April, and in the period between April and December, the price of silver fell by almost a third.

According to some analysts, silver is still great potential for growth, which is somewhat similar to the pursuit of gold. At a time when silver sharply last year collapsed in price, the price of gold has remained relatively stable, and now silver is trying to catch up.

Over the past two weeks gold and silver rose on expectations of the third phase of quantitative easing (QE3) by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which in the end was confirmed last week. But silver gets another support unlike gold – is the restoration of industrial production and the demand for silver in some industries.

According to experts, due to increased demand for silver in industry, silver for the year can show a very good performance.

Silver and gold are precious metals, but silver is also an industrial metal. With the growing demand in the industry, the price of silver increases. Thus, silver has become a sort of “semi-copper and semi-gold.”

According to experts, if the expectations of industrial growth are confirmed, the silver will feel confident. However, investors should be careful when investing in silver, as it is much more subject to volatility than gold.

Demand for gold in China has remained stable, despite the recent volatility in prices. This is evidenced by a survey of gold retailers in China.

According to the study, the gold in China is seen as a key element of the economic strategy of the country. Demand for gold in China steadily increased every quarter since 2003. The government is doing everything possible to ordinary citizens have access to buying gold in order to ensure their own protection for the future.

What was the cause of almost a decade of growth in demand for gold and why in the second quarter of 2012 there was a decline in demand?

Long-term outlook for several reasons, which generally give an overall picture. First, in China, there is growth of personal well-being of citizens with free money that they want to keep inflation, and they are willing to diversify their investments. Marketing research has shown that the demand for gold in China is also connected to its popularity as a hedge against fluctuations in the local market.

Most private investors and ordinary Chinese citizens are not able to invest their savings in the international investment funds, which are also experiencing problems now. Why gold has become a means for China to build its presence in the international market assets. Moreover, public funds and foreign exchange reserves of the country continue to grow, and they should also diversify with gold.

If we consider China’s foreign exchange reserves in proportion, the share of gold in them is only 1.6%, while in the western countries, the share of gold in foreign reserves is much higher, but the amount of foreign exchange reserves, China is according to the latest $ 3.2 trillion., to be gradually diversify by increasing gold reserves of the country.

On top of everything else, gold plays an important role in the internationalization of the Chinese currency. There is a point of view, but not the only one, that if the currency wants to be recognized by the international financial market, it should be heavily backed by gold. This is why gold is so popular in China at all levels of the population, which will keep the demand for it for nearly ten years.

After all is said, a natural question – why the demand for gold in China has started to fall in the second quarter of 2012? The fall in the quarter was 7%, which is a very large figure.

This situation can be explained in part by the following: China’s economic growth has slowed to the same investors behave is more reserved in terms of gold or fell in the second quarter of this year. Moreover, China has a lot of new funds for investment, available to ordinary citizens of the country, in particular, wealth management, which drew off some investors to gold.

All the major banks offer their services to the capital management is pursuing an aggressive advertising campaign. The liberalization of the yuan forcing the government to buy more gold. But Chinese investors an opportunity to invest in the international real estate market, which has led to an outflow of capital from the gold market.

At the beginning of last week gold price consolidated, with trading in the market were not exactly, as investors remained cautious ahead of the next meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and a news conference by Chairman Ben Bernanke. Meanwhile, the positive solution of the German Constitutional Court on the permanent crisis fund eurozone boosted gold to a new intraday high Wednesday. However, the optimism generated by the news, soon faded away.

A significant impetus for the growth of gold price received on Thursday, 13 September, reaching a new six-month high of U.S. $ 1,777.70 per ounce after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a major new step in the purchase of bonds stimulate U.S. economic recovery. Operations Committee on the Federal Open Market announced that it would be a month to buy mortgage-backed securities to $ 40 billion, and these purchases will not be limited in time. U.S. regulators also announced the continuation of “Operation Twist” and increased its monthly purchases of long-term securities to $ 85 billion by the end of this year.

Additional supporting factor for the growth of the precious asset, was the growth of the major currency pairs.

As a result, the price of gold over the past week rose by 1.98% to 1770.22 U.S. dollars per troy ounce.

According to our estimates the current policy of “cheap money” by the U.S. Federal Reserve will be a good support for the continued growth of gold by the end of the year. At the same time, expect an increase in investment demand as investors will buy the precious metal as an asset to hedge against inflation, which is likely to worsen as a result of such a policy. Next week amid new stimulus from the Fed, gold price will continue to bargain with the increase. The arrival of new buyers in the gold market and the weak position of the U.S. currency, may also provide substantial support to the quotations precious asset. Resistance level for gold for the next five trading days can be a value of U.S. $ 1,800.0 per troy ounce.

Affect the dynamics of the precious metal in the coming week could also scheduled economic data from the U.S. and the eurozone. Of American news is worth paying attention to the publication of data on the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Fed in September and at the numbers from the housing market in August, as well as data on the volume of net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors in July. Of European news to highlight the publication of data on the index of business sentiment in Germany from the environment institute ZEW, and preliminary figures for the indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the euro area in September. The data from the euro area, are likely to be indicative of a slight improvement in the situation, will support the quotations of gold.

Meanwhile, expect a moderately positive statistics from the ocean can cause the growth of the U.S. currency, thereby putting pressure on the yellow metal quotes. Gold can also be reduced if the economic data from the eurozone despite the forecasts come out worse than expected. Support for gold in the coming week will be the mark of U.S. $ 1,740.0 per troy ounce.

Copper price in the futures market this week rose by 4.68% to 3.8160 dollars per pound of copper. The significant growth of the red metal quotes demonstrated at the end of the week, reaching a one-week high 3.8375 dollars per pound of copper, which is a record high of more than four months. Positive background was due to the decision of the Federal Reserve Bank in respect of new measures to stimulate the economy.

Weak economic data from China, which increased the expectations of market participants about the introduction of new stimulus measures in the country, also contributed to the growth of quotations of copper at the beginning of the week. While slightly increase the stock exchange of the asset on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in the week prevented the growth of quotations of the red metal.

The sharp rise in prices, which occurred last week, against the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve may attract buyers to the market of copper, which will promote the growth of metal prices in the coming week. However, the price increase is likely to be limited to the continuing weak real demand for the asset. The cost of the red metal will also be determined macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and the eurozone. It is expected that these statistics will moderately positive. If these projections are correct, and data from the U.S. housing market, and the index of business confidence in Germany will be moderately positive, non-ferrous metals, including copper, may continue to grow.

However, if these statistics were disappointing, as the U.S. currency will resume its growth, and copper can be cheaper. Estimated range volatility of copper in the futures market in the coming week – 3.74 – 3.90 USD per pound of copper.

Investors can expect this year to the fact that gold prices could still reach a new record, while silver has managed to get around gold at the yield, which is growing faster than that of gold. With the opinion of investors about the prospects of the precious metals can be found on the forum for investors.

Currently, with the beginning of the year in the price of silver has increased by 22.4%, while gold was able to show the yield currently at 16.6%. Thus, over the last two weeks, when the price rally of both precious metals, silver was able to grow in value by almost half compared with the gold.

However, despite the rapid growth of silver over the past few months this year, compared profitability of both metals over the past two years, here silver is inferior to gold. This is primarily due to the significant decline in the price of silver over the past 2011. The largest drop in the last year was in April, and in the period between April and December, the price of silver fell by almost a third.

According to some analysts, silver is still great potential for growth, which is somewhat similar to the pursuit of gold. At a time when silver sharply last year collapsed in price, the price of gold has remained relatively stable, and now silver is trying to catch up.

Over the past two weeks gold and silver rose on expectations of the third phase of quantitative easing (QE3) by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which in the end was confirmed last week. But silver gets another support unlike gold – is the restoration of industrial production and the demand for silver in some industries.

According to experts, due to increased demand for silver in industry, silver for the year can show a very good performance.

Silver and gold are precious metals, but silver is also an industrial metal. With the growing demand in the industry, the price of silver increases. Thus, silver has become a sort of “semi-copper and semi-gold.”

According to experts, if the expectations of industrial growth are confirmed, the silver will feel confident. However, investors should be careful when investing in silver, as it is much more subject to volatility than gold.

According to many analysts, the second gold price rally could end only when it will reach $ 2,000 per troy ounce.

Another part of the experts on precious metals market, by contrast, believes that the price of gold is so high, and soon its correction may happen.

In any case, in September of this year gold peaked in the last six months. The growth of gold contributed to such factors as the problems in the global economy, hints of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on the U.S. about the possible third phase of quantitative easing (QE3), and the intention of the European Central Bank (ECB) to buy government bonds of troubled countries.

In 2000, gold was worth about $ 200 per ounce. In September 2011 a record was set the nominal price of gold at around $ 1,920 per ounce, which still has not been surpassed. Then, in November 2011, the gold price began to fall, and then the perception of gold as a “safe haven” was crumbling.

But in early 2012, gold began to rise again, giving investors another hope. In March of this year, gold again subsided in May dropped to the level of $ 1500 per ounce.

Now gold is trading back at high elevations in many months due to the possible beginning of additional economic stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

When the market there are new dollars in large quantities, it leads to its weakening, and investors naturally run into gold fearing inflation.

In 2000, gold was one of the best alternatives for investment in relation to shares, after the bubble collapsed, “dot-com”.

U.S. government fight against global terrorism also weakened the dollar, driving up the price of gold in the early 2000′s. Then the problem with the U.S. national debt is gradually weakening dollar, and investors once again sought refuge in gold.

According to experts, the demand for gold in India and China has also contributed largely to higher prices for gold over the past few years. Growth in demand for gold, among other things. contributed to the creation of exchange traded funds (ETF-funds), securities backed by gold.

First ETF-funds were created in 2003, and since then they have become a very popular tool for investment. This is evidenced by the fact that they now account for about 2,000 tons of gold.

First gold demand exceeded supply in the early 2000s. According to the World Gold Council, in 2011, the demand for gold was 4,574 tonnes, while the supply of gold in the world fell to 4,497 tons, which will also be one of the drivers of the increase in gold prices.

The ongoing strike at a number of platinum mines in South Africa threaten to lead to a shortage of platinum in the world market by the end of 2012. South Africa leads the world in the production of platinum. According to some estimates, its share of the total world production of the metal is greater than 75%.

Just a month ago, when the conflict in the mine Marikana owned British company Lonmin, just started to flare up, most experts believed that the shortage of platinum still be avoided.

However, instead of the temporary aggravation, as expected by the market, there was a further escalation of the conflict.

After the shooting of protesters at the mine Marikana unions in the face of the National Union of Miners and the Association of Miners and builders have decided to continue the confrontation with the leading companies in the region, demanding that their demands for increased wages. Strikes and clashes with the police spread to other platinum mines. In addition to mining company Lonmin platinum production was also disturbed by mining company Gold Fields Limited, Impala Platinum Holdings and the largest producer of platinum in South Africa and in the world of Anglo American Platinum.

According to analysts of Deutsche Bank, disruptions in mining companies in South Africa have led to a reduction in platinum production by 380 thousand troy ounces as compared with 2011

On a number of recent posts, due to the tense situation on high alert was given a number of military bases in South Africa – the first time since 1994, when the Republic of South Africa, the transition from the apartheid regime to a multiparty democracy. The soldiers must perform radical politician Julius Malem, a former leader of the youth wing of the African National Congress. After the shooting at the mine in mid-August Marikana he urged miners begin nationwide strike to make the mining industry in South Africa “ungovernable.” And judging by the events that began to listen to him.

Against this background, the platinum price is at its maximum for 5 months, the last time quotes $ 1660 per ounce were noted at the beginning of April 2012 the whole of platinum remains quite “bull” picture. With the continuation of the conflict between unions and mining companies in South Africa, the risk of deficiency in the world platinum market will only grow. It is likely that platinum can continue to show positive dynamics in the segment of the precious metals, which she shows in mid-August.

Indicator analysis.
Using two indicators ADX in one area determined which indicators work best at the moment. On the last run fast (light period of 8 – red) and slow (light period 24 – blue) lines go up, showing that work best indicators of the trend type (ISDA and secondary lines).
The system of indicators ISDA 4H chart (Figure 1).

In one area, four indicators with parameters and the color of the lines listed below:
1) 5/8/1, colors: Home – background (we have white) signal with a red (fast line speed indicator);
2) 05.08.13, colors: Home – background (we have white), thin red signal (slow line speed indicator);
3) 8/13/1, colors: Home – background (we have white), signal bold blue (slow-fast line indicator);
4) 8/13/21, colors: Home – background (we have white), thin blue signal (slow slow line indicator).
Do not forget all the indicators promashtabirovat. All indicators in icons “fix up” should be the same number. Similarly with icons “fix minimum.”
Properties on the last run (candle from 08.00).
1. Fast line speed indicator (red solid line) while moving down below its slow line (thin red) – the bottom of the strong property.
2. Slow-fast line indicator (blue thick line) is above its slow line (thin blue line) – the top of the signal.
3. Slow-fast line indicator (blue thick line) is above the fast line speed indicator (red solid line) – the downstream work.
Bottom line: the system of indicators ISDA 4H chart gives a signal down.

Nearest outlook depends on the outcome of the meeting FOMC, and pay attention to the fact that now many market participants expect the adoption of new stimulus measures, even at this meeting. The reason for such hopes was a report on employment in the United States, published last week, but the situation in the U.S. economy is still not showing rapid deterioration, and the Fed is unlikely to be decided on hasty action. Confounding expectations threaten to turn the reduction in the latter days of open short positions in the dollar, however, rely on the fact that the hopes for a new stimulus from the Fed will fade, not worth it. This will require improving the nature of statistics from the U.S.. The most likely scenario sees further easing of nature accompanying statement FOMC, while also possible to increase the expected period of exceptionally low rates. This event will be negative for the dollar, but in the short term, it can grow. Testing resistance around 1.30 in the near future seems quite possible, but in the absence of QE3 at this meeting it will be difficult to overcome, and for quick and convincing leap above the bulls may need fresh positive news from Europe or new surprises from the U.S. data.