Gold prices forecast

The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. last week has not brought any news for the precious metals market, as its follow-up was not clear whether the third stage of the quantitative stimulation (QE3) or not. However, it was emphasized that the interest rate the Fed will be kept to a minimum until the end of 2014

Gold is currently trading in a very narrow range of prices. On the one hand, the gold must contain the pressure from increased global liquidity, and sovereign debt in the Eurozone countries, and on the other hand, gold has an impact strong dollar and weak physical demand in India. Lower credit ratings of Spain last week, gold is once again made an attractive asset, but the subsequent strengthening of U.S. dollar held back the growth in demand for gold. A strong dollar will apparently continue to act to counterbalance the growth of gold in the medium term, while additional measures to stimulate the economy by central banks and fears of inflation combined with low interest rates will have a good support for gold.

Buying of gold by Central Banks in some developing countries has a very good support for gold against the dollar strengthening, which pulls down the gold. The tendency to build up its gold reserves at the central bank to continue developing countries into the medium and long term. Large purchases of gold by central banks were made in March this year. For example, Mexico, which in 2011 bought 99 tons of gold in March, adding to their reserves, another 17 tons. Thus, the proportion of gold in Mexico’s international reserves amounted to 4%, which is a very small measure by international standards.

Meanwhile, Russia has bought in March, another 16 tons of gold, thereby increasing the proportion of gold in its foreign exchange reserves to 10%. The share of gold in the international reserves of almost all developing countries is still very small compared with Western countries. For example, in the U.S., the figure is 77% in gold, and in Germany 74%. China has in its foreign exchange reserves of only 1.7%. Therefore, it is a major purchase of gold by central banks helped to keep the gold from a sharp fall during a strike jewelers in India.

Precious metals market is now awaiting a catalyst for further growth, which may be important economic news. A platinum group metals will uphold the excellent, if the data on industrial production in the U.S. and employment will continue to improve.

The global platinum market is not experiencing supply shortages are the precious metal. Platinum prices remain stable, but this situation can change quickly at any time about it, analysts say.

In their view, the world market is now experiencing an excess of platinum, despite the drop in production in South Africa because of the strike, because other countries have increased their production of platinum.

According to the research advisory agency GFMS, the price of platinum will trade in a range between $ 1475 and $ 1775 per ounce before the end of 2012 In the past, in 2011 the average price of platinum was $ 1722 per ounce, which is currently the record.

According to the agency GFMS, the world surplus of platinum in the past year fell by 12% compared to 2010 up to 735.000 ounces. This was the result of increased demand for platinum, particularly from the jewelry industry. The demand for platinum in the past year has exceeded its supply.

According to experts, Zimbabwe, neighboring South Africa, is in a better position to improve its production of platinum, and can even make South Africa’s competition, despite the political problems at home. Zimbabwe is second only to South Africa, the number of known deposits of platinum.

According to analysts, many of the mines in South Africa are faced with some problems, for example, the pressure of the rocks, too much closeness in the mines, long drive to the mines. Many projects for the development of new mines platinum in South Africa do not develop as quickly as planned.

If the Zimbabwean government will create favorable conditions for attracting foreign investors in mining projects, the country could become one of the leaders in the production of platinum in the world in the coming years.

Jewelry demand for platinum rose last year by 14% to 2167 million ounces, while the rest of the demand grew by only 4%.

Particular attention should be given a gold watch. Made of precious metal, they never lose their luster, do not fall in the price and will always be relevant. They are a symbol of a certain status and success. Buy gold watch not only prestigious, it is also a great investment. The process of manufacturing gold watch has a number of features. Laborious manual work – the main component in the manufacture of the watch or bracelet. No wonder they say, a gold watch – a fusion of the two masters of art: a watchmaker and jeweler.
Today, the Swiss manufacturers holds the leading position in the number of models produced from gold – 95% is produced in this country. Why the world’s best mechanisms do not “wear” the best in metal! It is also a precious metal can be produced virtually all the details of the mechanism. Sometimes this is done using alloys with copper and other metals. This “filling” looks particularly impressive in the clock-skeleton.
There is almost a gold watch at the same time with the wrist models.The main contenders for the title of the first wristwatch, Swiss Breguet, were made for the sister of Napoleon with the yarns of the precious yellow metal, woven a human hair. It was the women’s watches, which were the most splendid ornament, so that no gold was simply impossible to do. Today, the stores of gold watches predstvlen large selection of different models of world famous brands.

In an interview with King World News analyst, global precious metals market, James Turk, indignantly commented on the intervention of central banks in the gold market, which led to a sharp drop in gold prices, which occurred last week.James Turk is also the author of famous book “The collapse of the dollar and how to take advantage of it,” which may be useful for every investor in gold.

“Over the past 12 years gold bull market could be a lot of time watching the various manipulations in the market dragmetllov by some central banks. It is not surprising that the latest intervention in the last week there was a time when the price of silver reached a significant level, while gold was close to the psychologically important mark of $ 1800 per ounce. For central banks the situation is becoming critical, and could spin out of control, so they had to resort to manipulation in the precious metals market.

For those who have over 12 years of investing in gold and silver, falling prices for gold and silver was not unexpected. It is important to understand that after such a sharp fall in the precious metals again recovered and even exceeded the price of the previous price point. Therefore, the current situation will not be anything different from what we have already seen many times in the past.

Investors in precious metals should be aware that the fundamental factors of growth have not gone away. They are still in operation. I understand that such a sharp price decline that we saw last week, may disappoint any novice investor, especially if he bought the gold shortly before the fall. But as I said, this was already in the past, so do not panic and throw off their positions in gold or silver. We must patiently sit and wait for prices to recover again. ”

“Silver again fell below $ 35 per ounce, and now this mark will be a point of resistance. When the mark once again be overcome, then you can count on the growth of silver to $ 70 per ounce over the next two to three months, as I mentioned earlier. There is no reason for the bearish trend of silver. You have to wait several days or even weeks, and then the money should again reach the mark of $ 35 per ounce. ”

“As for gold, the price of gold $ 1700 an ounce would be a good basis for further growth due to the physical demand for gold, which will be observed at this price.Even if gold drops to $ 1688 per ounce, it is also not critical. I believe that once reached the bottom of the falls, that is, an attractive price for purchases, then we can expect a rapid recovery in gold prices. ”

“During the financial crisis, gold and silver are the best safe haven for capital.Gold has a 5000-year history as money, but current experimental system of exchange, which in no way guaranteed, there are only 40 years of promises by the government. As history shows, the use of paper as money leads to the destruction of such a monetary system, and gold remains unchanged at all times. “

Spot gold prices fell to a minimum the last six weeks in 1682 dollars per ounce. Commodity prices and the euro continued its decline due to uncertainty over the past European treaties. Silver also continued to decline and fell below $ 33 per ounce.

“Last week, many investors have suffered from the sale of gold,” – said Lynette Tan, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore, although she adds that “gold is still getting good support by the average price over the last 200 days.” According to the London fixing, the average price of gold for 200 days now stands at $ 1672.57 per ounce.

According to the commodity market analyst Standard Bank, «in the physical market is now great excitement prevails. Customers are satisfied with the current price and buy it with pleasure. If the price of gold will continue to fall, then the customers can buy more physical gold. ”

At Thursday, March 8, private debt holders of Greek bonds have to tell if they agree to restructure the debt of Greece. By some estimates, the cancellation could be up to 70%. The Institute of International Finance, which represents the interests of private investors in talks to restructure debt of Greece, said that “a chaotic default by Greece will have very negative consequences.”

President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy urged the Dutch government to reduce the projected budget deficit from 4.5% of GDP to 3%, as the European leaders decided last Friday. Meanwhile, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy identified budget deficit of 5.8% and called it “a sovereign decision.” Last year, Spain’s budget deficit amounted to 8.5% of GDP.

In the Netherlands, “Freedom Party” issued a call to leave the euro area and return to the country’s treatment of the Dutch guilder currency. According to party leader Geert Wilders, “the euro does not represent the interests of the Dutch people. We want to be masters of their homes and their country. We are for the return of the guilder against the euro. ”

After the election of Vladimir Putin President of the Russian rating agency Fitch reminds investors that “it was in January of this year’s revised forecast of Russia’s economy from” positive “to” stable “. According to Fitch, «it is closely monitoring how quickly the new government will be able to reform the Russian economy and to accelerate fiscal consolidation.” Fitch added that “during the election campaign Putin has made many promises, which require large amounts of money, while some members of government were in favor of fiscal consolidation.”

In an interview with TV channel “Russia 24″ Chief Investment Officer of UBS Wealth Management, Alexander Friedman spoke of the least risky countries, pairs of currencies and other instruments for investors in 2012.

Friedman stresses that the situation looks more optimistic than it was 3-4 months ago. First, the U.S. statistics for the IV quarter of 2011 showed a better performance than most investors had expected. Friedman believes the UK, USA and China, where UBS expects a “soft landing”, the most attractive for investors in 2012 More 3 months ago the situation in China seemed more depressed.

In Europe, according to Friedman, the positive effect that has been achieved in recent months: an agreement has a significantly smaller number of participants.

“The most difficult problem, which I saw in the last six months, you can call the leaders of seventeen attempts to unite and develop at least some consensus on the solution of debt problems, and then pull it in their parliaments. Now the situation looks different. It seems that only two countries trying to unite – France and Germany. Positive brings the ECB with a new leader. This situation already looks more attractive in terms of predictability and the probability of reaching agreements, “- says Freedman.

However, he notes that in the euro currency pair is less stable than the dollar. Each economy has its own “Achilles heel” in the U.S. – is a long public debt, but the overall situation in the next six months in the United States is much more predictable than in Europe, he said.

In this case gold, which last year showed an increase of 8% per day, according to Friedman, is not a safe haven for investors, but may serve as a reliable protection against fluctuations of currencies.

Among the main risks in 2012 refers to the investor risk the outbreak of hostilities between Iran and Israel and the situation in Nigeria. Since Iran and Nigeria are the suppliers of raw materials, the tense situation affects the growth of oil prices, which could affect the pace of recovery in Europe and the USA. Also, do not underestimate the political risks, because in many countries this year will change direction, says Friedman.

“This year is full of politically significant events: a change of leadership in Greece, France, Korea, Iran, China, USA, etc. Depending on who wins the election, a political course that you may have expected, and based on which is expected their investment, it may be quite different. So, in my opinion, political uncertainty – is a serious risk. “

The price of gold during the session of February 29 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by more than $ 100, amounting to the trading results in 1688 dollars per troy ounce, reports BBC News. Later in the Asian precious metal played a little drop, rising to 1719 dollars per ounce.

Such a sharp decrease in quotations of gold was triggered by a statement the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke that the U.S. economy recovers from the crisis. Thus, many investors have decided to leave the precious metal and to switch to riskier assets.

Gold is considered a “safe haven” for investors in times of crisis. During the recession of 2008-2010, it increased significantly in price, jumped from 700 to 1,900 dollars per ounce. Thus, were repeatedly beaten historic highs.

Gold is still quoted very high, two to three times higher than pre-crisis level. Analysts note that the current decline is unlikely to be profound and probably indicates the short-term investor sentiment, rather than rejection of the precious metal in the future.

The high price of gold in 2009-2011 supports the extremely strong demand from major markets – China and India. The inhabitants of these countries prefer to keep their money in gold or jewelry. Also of great interest to the metal showing central banks of both countries.

The production volume of silver in the United States in December 2011 increased by 10% compared to November, up to 99.800 kg. On average, in December,3,200 kg of silver was mined. However, at the end of 2011, silver production fell by 12% compared to 2010, to 1.120 million kg.

On the global platinum market in 2012 may supply shortage, as mining companiescontinue to struggle with disruptions in supplies from South Africa. At the same time demand for the metal increases. Production in key regions - South Africa - is becoming increasingly problematic. In South Africa accounts for 75% to 80% of world production of platinum group metals.

The average gold price in the first quarter at $ 1.700 an ounce, analysts said the bank’s Barclays Capital. After climbing to a maximum of three months the metal will take a timeout. The overall macroeconomic situation is favorable for the growth ofgold prices.