Data on stocks of silver, COMEX daily published besides the usual information on the volume of trade can make some interesting comparisons.
Thus, silver inventories category REGISTERED (red) have a high degree of correlation with the price of the metal – at least on the chart visible stocks in April and May 2011goda that corresponds to the maximum price for the first time since 1980, come close to the level of $ 50 per ounce (Figure reversible, ie is, if the price curve goes up with the price increases, respectively, down).
While it is difficult to say which of the parameters determining whether there is a relationship or stocks and price are in turn derived from global trends – commodity or monetary, but a cautious outlook can be done.
So, from August 2008 to the present category reserves REGISTERED decreased from 87,213,090 to 26,729,370 ounces (34,505,725 ounces on February 15, 2012), ie 52 million ounces for the three and a half years, decreasing by 15-20 million ounces. Extrapolating this data (not taking into account possible emissions that inevitably will increase the prices of all commodities) conclude, stocks close to zero for a year and adjusted in accordance with the obtained dependence price of silver get $ 60-70 per ounce in the next half years.
It is also interesting correlation silver reserves category REGISTERED ELIGIBLE and from August 2008 to the present time – they fell and rose to 39% and 188%, respectively.
Click on image to enlarge.
The price of silver over the same period rose by 212%, which can also talk about the possible dependence of these parameters is particularly evident in the chart, it can be concluded that there is no silver overbought and the adequacy of the price of $ 29-35 per ounce now .
Exchange COMEX daily reports on the number of metals (including silver), located in warehouses licensed by the exchange depositories http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/silver-depositories.html, with metal stocks are divided into two Category: REGISTERED and ELIGIBLE.
Registered (REGISTERED) silver means that the silver is available for delivery on the contract, ie in fact, it is a physical, not a “paper” metal.
Inadequate or Acceptable silver (ELIGIBLE) – that means metal in warehouses depositary COMEX, meets the requirements of Exchange (ingot weigh 1,000 ounces of + / – 10%, have an approved exchange mark and be produced on the associated bond list affinazhere, not be available for delivery on commercial contracts.
Anyone who buys silver bullion and is not going to sell it, can instead of storing it at home, at the bank or dealer to deliver it to the warehouse depository COMEX – and the metal will be treated as ELIGIBLE – while it can not be put up against the contracts traded on This Chicago area.
When transferring from the same category in ELIGIBLE REGISTERED (the actual translation from one category to another is not difficult: the owner of the metal must receive from the depositary receipt (Depository Receipt (Warrant) to transfer him to one of the metal storage categories) the holder is entitled silver supply its metal contracts concluded on COMEX.
With some caution we can assume that it actually means REGISTERED category of traded physical silver, which gradually decreases due to the desire of investors / consumers to buy a real, not “paper” metal.